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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Carlos Ulberg won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1573

Elo1522

Carlos UlbergvsDominick ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Saturday, September 27, 2025Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Carlos Ulberg won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:27

Style matchupCarlos Ulberg: Pressure fightervsDominick Reyes: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Carlos Ulberg wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Carlos Ulberg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Ulberg at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Ulberg enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Dominick Reyes enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Carlos Ulberg is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Dominick Reyes has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Ulberg

Red Corner

Dominick Reyes

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1573

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos UlbergW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Da Woon Jung · Sep 23

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 24

vs Volkan Oezdemir · Nov 24

vs Jan Blachowicz · Mar 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 26

latest

Dominick ReyesW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan Spann · Nov 22

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos UlbergMetricDominick Reyes

6.57

Strikes / min

4.99

4.03

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

51%

Strike defense

49%

0.53

TDs / 15 min

0.25

85%

Takedown defense

82%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.54evenly matched on net striking+1.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos UlbergDominick Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Ulberg(10 fights)Dominick Reyes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +50.6|Blue -50.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos UlbergTargetDominick Reyes

By target zone

67% acc · 55%

Head

0% acc

67% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 20%

60% acc · 27%

Leg

80% acc · 80%

By position

60% acc · 82%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Ulberg rounds

even

Dominick Reyes rounds

Round 1Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 17

Sig Strikes

5 / 11

64%

Sig Str %

45%

11 / 17

Total Strikes

5 / 11

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dominick Reyes	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 0	0
1	Carlos Ulberg	11 / 17	11 / 17	0 / 0	0

Carlos Ulberg

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights10

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13