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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Ulberg won · SUB R3

Elo1573

Elo1481

Carlos UlbergvsDa Woon JungUFC Prediction Result

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Saturday, September 9, 2023Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Carlos Ulberg won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:49

Style matchupCarlos Ulberg: Pressure fightervsDa Woon Jung: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Carlos Ulberg wins(83.1%)

Actual result: Carlos Ulberg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Ulberg at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Ulberg enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Da Woon Jung enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Ulberg

Red Corner

Da Woon Jung

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1573

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos UlbergW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 24

vs Volkan Oezdemir · Nov 24

vs Jan Blachowicz · Mar 25

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Sep 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 26

latest

Da Woon JungL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Nov 21

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jul 22

vs Devin Clark · Feb 23

vs Oumar Sy · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos UlbergMetricDa Woon Jung

6.57

Strikes / min

3.24

4.03

Strikes absorbed / min

4.23

51%

Strike defense

49%

0.53

TDs / 15 min

1.59

85%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.54Δ 3.53 — meaningful gap-0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos UlbergDa Woon Jung

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Ulberg(10 fights)Da Woon Jung(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +91.3|Blue -91.3

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos UlbergTargetDa Woon Jung

By target zone

42% acc · 62%

Head

24% acc · 24%

87% acc · 25%

Body

60% acc · 21%

92% acc · 14%

Leg

78% acc · 55%

By position

47% acc · 73%

Distance

48% acc · 95%

89% acc · 10%

Clinch

60% acc · 5%

74% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Ulberg rounds

even

Da Woon Jung rounds

Round 1Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control1:38

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 154

Sig Strikes

58 / 120

51.7%

Sig Str %

49%

91 / 165

Total Strikes

60 / 123

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:41

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Da Woon Jung	17 / 30	17 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Carlos Ulberg	19 / 36	21 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Da Woon Jung	23 / 44	23 / 44	0 / 0	0
2	Carlos Ulberg	24 / 55	24 / 55	0 / 0	0
3	Da Woon Jung	18 / 46	20 / 49	1 / 2	0
3	Carlos Ulberg	38 / 63	46 / 72	1 / 2	1

Carlos Ulberg

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights10

Da Woon Jung

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5