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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Hernandez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1488

Carlos HernandezvsDenys BondarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Saturday, June 17, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Hernandez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 4:59

Style matchupCarlos Hernandez: Well-roundedvsDenys Bondar: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Denys Bondar wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Carlos Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Denys Bondar at -142 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Hernandez

Red Corner

Denys Bondar

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-142

(59%)

1489

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Hernandez

oldest →

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Jan 23

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 23

vs Rei Tsuruya · Jun 24

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Nov 24

SUBvs HyunSung Park · May 25

latest

Denys BondarL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Malcolm Gordon · Feb 22

SUBvs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos HernandezMetricDenys Bondar

3.83

Strikes / min

4.59

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

5.16

50%

Strike defense

56%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

3.99

65%

Takedown defense

62%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos HernandezDenys Bondar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Hernandez(7 fights)Denys Bondar(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -343.0|Blue +343.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos HernandezTargetDenys Bondar

By target zone

41% acc · 85%

Head

31% acc · 49%

71% acc · 12%

Body

76% acc · 38%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

91% acc · 13%

By position

37% acc · 76%

Distance

43% acc · 89%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

58% acc · 9%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Hernandez rounds

even

Denys Bondar rounds

Round 1Carlos Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:09

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Denys Bondar edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:08

33Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Carlos Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns2

Control0:23

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

102 / 233

Sig Strikes

76 / 170

43.7%

Sig Str %

44.3%

108 / 239

Total Strikes

82 / 176

2 / 7

TDs

2 / 5

22%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Denys Bondar	22 / 48	22 / 48	0 / 1
1	Carlos Hernandez	35 / 71	36 / 72	0 / 2
2	Denys Bondar	33 / 61	34 / 62	1 / 2
2	Carlos Hernandez	27 / 82	31 / 86	0 / 2
3	Denys Bondar	21 / 61	26 / 66	1 / 2
3	Carlos Hernandez	40 / 80	41 / 81	2 / 3

Carlos Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Denys Bondar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3