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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Felipe won · S-DEC

Elo1494

Elo1495

Carlos FelipevsJustin TafaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · Saturday, January 16, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Carlos Felipe won

S-DEC

Style matchupCarlos Felipe: Pressure fightervsJustin Tafa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Carlos Felipe wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Carlos Felipe wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Felipe at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Felipe has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Felipe

Red Corner

Justin Tafa

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1494

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Felipe

oldest →

vs Serghei Spivac · Jul 20

vs Yorgan De Castro · Oct 20

vs Jake Collier · Jun 21

vs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 21

latest

Justin TafaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21

KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23

KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23

vs Karl Williams · Mar 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos FelipeMetricJustin Tafa

4.88

Strikes / min

4.05

5.60

Strikes absorbed / min

5.11

50%

Strike defense

47%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

72%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72evenly matched on net striking-1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos FelipeJustin Tafa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Felipe(5 fights)Justin Tafa(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos FelipeTargetJustin Tafa

By target zone

45% acc · 60%

Head

47% acc · 58%

78% acc · 36%

Body

83% acc · 23%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

94% acc · 19%

By position

50% acc · 83%

Distance

56% acc · 86%

93% acc · 17%

Clinch

80% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Felipe rounds

even

Justin Tafa rounds

Round 1Justin Tafa edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Carlos Felipe edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:41

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Carlos Felipe edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 142

Sig Strikes

86 / 148

50.3%

Sig Str %

57.7%

77 / 142

Total Strikes

109 / 171

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

1:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Tafa	26 / 47	26 / 47	0 / 0
1	Carlos Felipe	9 / 29	9 / 29	0 / 0
2	Justin Tafa	34 / 53	34 / 53	0 / 0
2	Carlos Felipe	35 / 61	35 / 61	0 / 1
3	Justin Tafa	26 / 48	49 / 71	0 / 2
3	Carlos Felipe	33 / 52	33 / 52	0 / 0

Carlos Felipe

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5

Justin Tafa

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9