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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Felipe won · S-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1474

Carlos FelipevsJake CollierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Saturday, June 12, 2021Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Felipe won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCarlos Felipe: Pressure fightervsJake Collier: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Carlos Felipe wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Carlos Felipe wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Felipe at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Collier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Felipe

Red Corner

Jake Collier

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1494

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Felipe

oldest →

vs Serghei Spivac · Jul 20

vs Yorgan De Castro · Oct 20

vs Justin Tafa · Jan 21

vs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 21

latest

Jake CollierL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22

vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22

KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22

vs Martin Buday · Apr 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos FelipeMetricJake Collier

4.88

Strikes / min

5.80

5.60

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

50%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.71

72%

Takedown defense

67%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos FelipeJake Collier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Felipe(5 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.6|Blue -20.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos FelipeTargetJake Collier

By target zone

42% acc · 68%

Head

38% acc · 66%

76% acc · 27%

Body

77% acc · 15%

83% acc · 5%

Leg

92% acc · 18%

By position

48% acc · 98%

Distance

127

46% acc · 98%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

75% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Felipe rounds

even

Jake Collier rounds

Round 1Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:02

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 192

Sig Strikes

130 / 281

50.3%

Sig Str %

45.3%

94 / 192

Total Strikes

130 / 281

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Collier	42 / 92	42 / 92	0 / 0
1	Carlos Felipe	25 / 43	25 / 43	0 / 0
2	Jake Collier	34 / 78	34 / 78	0 / 0
2	Carlos Felipe	28 / 58	28 / 58	0 / 0
3	Jake Collier	54 / 111	54 / 111	0 / 1
3	Carlos Felipe	41 / 91	41 / 91	0 / 0

Carlos Felipe

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights14