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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tyron Woodley won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1494

Elo1398

Carlos ConditvsTyron WoodleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · Saturday, March 15, 2014Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Tyron Woodley won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:00

Model Prediction: Carlos Condit wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Tyron Woodley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Condit at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tyron Woodley has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Condit

Red Corner

Tyron Woodley

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1494

Elo

1398

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Condit

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 20

vs Matt Brown · Jan 21

vs Max Griffin · Jul 21

latest

Tyron WoodleyL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · May 20

KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos ConditMetricTyron Woodley

3.66

Strikes / min

2.36

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

1.06

38%

Takedown defense

87%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos ConditTyron Woodley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Condit(10 fights)Tyron Woodley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.8|Blue -95.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +80.0|Blue -80.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos ConditTargetTyron Woodley

By target zone

19% acc · 46%

Head

43% acc · 71%

60% acc · 23%

Body

75% acc · 21%

67% acc · 31%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

26% acc · 77%

Distance

40% acc · 57%

75% acc · 23%

Clinch

67% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Condit rounds

even

Tyron Woodley rounds

Round 1Tyron Woodley edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:10Control

Round 2Tyron Woodley edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:53Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 43

Sig Strikes

14 / 29

31%

Sig Str %

48.5%

52 / 84

Total Strikes

34 / 49

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

3:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tyron Woodley	11 / 23	18 / 30	2 / 2	0
1	Carlos Condit	8 / 29	29 / 51	0 / 0	1
2	Tyron Woodley	3 / 6	16 / 19	1 / 1	0
2	Carlos Condit	5 / 14	23 / 33	0 / 0	0

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15