← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

5 Rounds

Carlos Condit won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1494

Elo1379

Carlos ConditvsThiago AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · Saturday, May 30, 2015Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Carlos Condit won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsThiago Alves: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Carlos Condit wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Carlos Condit wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Condit at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Alves has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Carlos Condit has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Condit

Red Corner

Thiago Alves

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1494

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Condit

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 20

vs Matt Brown · Jan 21

vs Max Griffin · Jul 21

latest

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos ConditMetricThiago Alves

3.66

Strikes / min

3.73

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.42

55%

Strike defense

62%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

0.71

38%

Takedown defense

63%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos ConditThiago Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Condit(10 fights)Thiago Alves(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +115.0|Blue -115.0

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +322.0|Blue -322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos ConditTargetThiago Alves

By target zone

39% acc · 67%

Head

26% acc · 32%

78% acc · 19%

Body

100% acc · 18%

69% acc · 15%

Leg

85% acc · 50%

By position

38% acc · 65%

Distance

50% acc · 97%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

33% acc · 3%

85% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Condit rounds

even

Thiago Alves rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Carlos Condit edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns2

Control2:35

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 162

Sig Strikes

34 / 69

46%

Sig Str %

47%

107 / 200

Total Strikes

35 / 70

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:35

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thiago Alves	23 / 39	23 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Carlos Condit	24 / 82	24 / 82	0 / 0	0
2	Thiago Alves	11 / 30	12 / 31	0 / 0	1
2	Carlos Condit	51 / 80	83 / 118	2 / 3	0

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15