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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Condit won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1494

Elo1357

Carlos ConditvsRory MacDonaldUFC Prediction Result

UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin · Saturday, June 12, 2010Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Carlos Condit won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:53

Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsRory MacDonald: Elusive striker

Two technical strikers — likely goes the distance with a close decision.

Model Prediction: Carlos Condit wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Carlos Condit wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Condit at +118 American odds

+$118 profit

$218 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Condit is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Rory MacDonald has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Condit

Red Corner

Rory MacDonald

Blue Corner

+118

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-128

(56%)

1494

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Condit

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 20

vs Matt Brown · Jan 21

vs Max Griffin · Jul 21

latest

Rory MacDonaldL2 streak

oldest →

vs Demian Maia · Feb 14

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14

KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15

vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos ConditMetricRory MacDonald

3.66

Strikes / min

3.75

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

55%

Strike defense

62%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

1.77

38%

Takedown defense

88%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos ConditRory MacDonald

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Condit(10 fights)Rory MacDonald(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.4|Blue -136.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos ConditTargetRory MacDonald

By target zone

35% acc · 60%

Head

37% acc · 76%

45% acc · 14%

Body

57% acc · 14%

79% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

32% acc · 44%

Distance

38% acc · 69%

46% acc · 15%

Clinch

64% acc · 24%

64% acc · 40%

Ground

33% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Condit rounds

even

Rory MacDonald rounds

Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:13Control

Round 2Carlos Condit edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:09

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 3Carlos Condit edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control3:58

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 170

Sig Strikes

29 / 70

40.7%

Sig Str %

42.3%

149 / 261

Total Strikes

40 / 82

0 / 2

TDs

3 / 8

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

4:07

Ctrl Time

3:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rory MacDonald	8 / 25	14 / 32	3 / 4	0
1	Carlos Condit	14 / 42	46 / 78	0 / 0	0
2	Rory MacDonald	16 / 35	20 / 39	0 / 2	0
2	Carlos Condit	23 / 64	40 / 82	0 / 2	0
3	Rory MacDonald	5 / 10	6 / 11	0 / 2	0
3	Carlos Condit	35 / 64	63 / 101	0 / 0	1

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12