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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1505

Carlos ConditvsNeil MagnyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Saturday, December 30, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsNeil Magny: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Neil Magny has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Neil Magny has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Condit

Red Corner

Neil Magny

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1494

Elo

1505

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Condit

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 20

vs Matt Brown · Jan 21

vs Max Griffin · Jul 21

latest

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos ConditMetricNeil Magny

3.66

Strikes / min

3.40

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

55%

Strike defense

51%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

2.17

38%

Takedown defense

55%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos ConditNeil Magny

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Condit(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.8|Blue +11.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +378.0|Blue -378.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos ConditTargetNeil Magny

By target zone

14% acc · 27%

Head

17% acc · 44%

48% acc · 27%

Body

62% acc · 41%

77% acc · 46%

Leg

50% acc · 16%

By position

31% acc · 86%

Distance

24% acc · 75%

56% acc · 14%

Clinch

67% acc · 19%

Ground

67% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Condit rounds

even

Neil Magny rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:19

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 2Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:17

6Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:47Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:07

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 112

Sig Strikes

32 / 114

36.3%

Sig Str %

27%

64 / 140

Total Strikes

64 / 150

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 9

—

TD %

63.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

5:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Neil Magny	9 / 35	15 / 42	2 / 3
1	Carlos Condit	10 / 31	18 / 40	0 / 0
2	Neil Magny	6 / 23	27 / 47	3 / 4
2	Carlos Condit	10 / 20	28 / 38	0 / 0
3	Neil Magny	17 / 56	22 / 61	1 / 2
3	Carlos Condit	17 / 61	18 / 62	0 / 0

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37