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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · SUB R2

Elo1494

Elo1529

Carlos ConditvsMichael ChiesaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Saturday, December 29, 2018Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:56

Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsMichael Chiesa: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chiesa at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Carlos Condit has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Michael Chiesa has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Condit

Red Corner

Michael Chiesa

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1494

Elo

1529

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Condit

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Dec 17

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 20

vs Matt Brown · Jan 21

vs Max Griffin · Jul 21

latest

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos ConditMetricMichael Chiesa

3.66

Strikes / min

2.02

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

1.73

55%

Strike defense

57%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

3.11

38%

Takedown defense

65%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos ConditMichael Chiesa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Condit(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.3|Blue +35.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos ConditTargetMichael Chiesa

By target zone

11% acc · 40%

Head

40% acc · 80%

40% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

11% acc · 40%

Distance

25% acc · 20%

50% acc · 40%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

50% acc · 20%

Ground

50% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Condit rounds

even

Michael Chiesa rounds

Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:18

9Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:42Control

Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 24

Sig Strikes

10 / 22

18.5%

Sig Str %

36%

20 / 39

Total Strikes

16 / 33

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 5

—

TD %

87.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

4:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Chiesa	9 / 17	13 / 26	3 / 4	0
1	Carlos Condit	4 / 15	19 / 30	0 / 0	1
2	Michael Chiesa	1 / 5	3 / 7	1 / 1	1
2	Carlos Condit	1 / 9	1 / 9	0 / 0	0

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22