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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Condit won · U-DEC

Elo1494

Elo1499

Carlos ConditvsMatt BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · Saturday, January 16, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Carlos Condit won

U-DEC

Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsMatt Brown: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Carlos Condit wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Brown has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Condit

Red Corner

Matt Brown

Blue Corner

-177

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1494

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Condit

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Dec 17

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 20

vs Max Griffin · Jul 21

latest

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Ben Saunders · Dec 19

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos ConditMetricMatt Brown

3.66

Strikes / min

3.76

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

55%

Strike defense

55%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

1.68

38%

Takedown defense

63%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos ConditMatt Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Condit(10 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.0|Blue +5.0

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos ConditTargetMatt Brown

By target zone

41% acc · 77%

Head

59% acc · 46%

50% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 39%

71% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

32% acc · 56%

Distance

61% acc · 39%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

80% acc · 31%

Ground

82% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Condit rounds

even

Matt Brown rounds

Round 1Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:23

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:36Control

Round 2Carlos Condit edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control2:25

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Carlos Condit edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control2:04

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 88

Sig Strikes

28 / 37

42.7%

Sig Str %

79%

157 / 209

Total Strikes

37 / 52

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 6

33%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:52

Ctrl Time

6:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Brown	9 / 14	15 / 23	1 / 1
1	Carlos Condit	6 / 22	60 / 77	0 / 0
2	Matt Brown	11 / 15	12 / 16	0 / 2
2	Carlos Condit	21 / 44	58 / 83	2 / 3
3	Matt Brown	8 / 8	10 / 13	0 / 3
3	Carlos Condit	12 / 22	39 / 49	0 / 1

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25