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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Johny Hendricks won · U-DEC R3
Elo1494
Carlos Condit
Elo1362
Johny Hendricks

Carlos ConditvsJohny HendricksUFC Prediction Result

UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · Saturday, March 16, 2013Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Johny Hendricks won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsJohny Hendricks: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Carlos Condit wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Johny Hendricks wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Condit at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Johny Hendricks has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).
  • Carlos Condit has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Condit
Red Corner
VS
Johny Hendricks
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1494
Elo
1362
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
5'9"
190.5 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Condit
oldest →
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18
W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20
W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21
L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21
latest
Johny HendricksL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16
L
vs Neil Magny · Dec 16
W
vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17
L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17
L
KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos ConditMetricJohny Hendricks
3.66
Strikes / min
3.49
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.99
55%
Strike defense
53%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
3.83
38%
Takedown defense
63%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.99Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1551 vs 1606Strikes50.7 vs 28.2Takedowns0.6 vs 2.4Sub Atts0.86 vs 0.50Form-0.0 vs 1.0
Carlos ConditJohny Hendricks

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Carlos Condit(10 fights)Johny Hendricks(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +131.1|Blue -131.1
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos ConditTargetJohny Hendricks

By target zone

26
22% acc · 62%
Head
25
40% acc · 83%
10
63% acc · 24%
Body
4
80% acc · 13%
6
55% acc · 14%
Leg
1
25% acc · 3%

By position

34
26% acc · 81%
Distance
20
36% acc · 67%
2
22% acc · 5%
Clinch
5
56% acc · 17%
6
100% acc · 14%
Ground
5
83% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Carlos Condit rounds
0
even
3
Johny Hendricks rounds
Round 1Johny Hendricks edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:24
14Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
2:17Control
Round 2Johny Hendricks edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
2:40Control
Round 3Johny Hendricks edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
3:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
42 / 145
Sig Strikes
30 / 71
29.3%
Sig Str %
41.7%
94 / 201
Total Strikes
69 / 112
0 / 0
TDs
12 / 15
—
TD %
80%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:24
Ctrl Time
8:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Johny Hendricks14 / 3422 / 424 / 50
1Carlos Condit15 / 3925 / 520 / 00
2Johny Hendricks12 / 2726 / 414 / 50
2Carlos Condit13 / 4924 / 600 / 00
3Johny Hendricks4 / 1021 / 294 / 50
3Carlos Condit14 / 5745 / 890 / 00

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights19