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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Condit won · U-DEC

Elo1494

Elo1493

Carlos ConditvsCourt McGeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · Saturday, October 3, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Carlos Condit won

U-DEC

Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsCourt McGee: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Carlos Condit wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Carlos Condit wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Condit at +111 American odds

+$111 profit

$211 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Court McGee has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Condit

Red Corner

Court McGee

Blue Corner

+111

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-137

(58%)

1494

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Condit

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Dec 17

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18

vs Matt Brown · Jan 21

vs Max Griffin · Jul 21

latest

Court McGee

oldest →

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 22

KOvs Matt Brown · May 23

vs Alex Morono · Apr 24

SUBvs Tim Means · Oct 24

vs Michael Chiesa · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos ConditMetricCourt McGee

3.66

Strikes / min

4.50

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

1.78

38%

Takedown defense

70%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos ConditCourt McGee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Condit(10 fights)Court McGee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +293.0|Blue -293.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos ConditTargetCourt McGee

By target zone

29% acc · 57%

Head

12% acc · 11%

50% acc · 19%

Body

55% acc · 33%

91% acc · 24%

Leg

81% acc · 56%

By position

38% acc · 99%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Condit rounds

even

Court McGee rounds

Round 1Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Carlos Condit edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Carlos Condit edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:02

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 230

Sig Strikes

84 / 182

38.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

88 / 230

Total Strikes

84 / 182

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Court McGee	31 / 63	31 / 63	0 / 0
1	Carlos Condit	15 / 38	15 / 38	0 / 0
2	Court McGee	26 / 56	26 / 56	0 / 0
2	Carlos Condit	30 / 71	30 / 71	0 / 0
3	Court McGee	27 / 63	27 / 63	0 / 0
3	Carlos Condit	43 / 121	43 / 121	0 / 0

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Court McGee

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24