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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jake Hadley won · SUB R2

Elo1439

Elo1496

Carlos CandelariovsJake HadleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Saturday, November 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jake Hadley won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:39

Model Prediction: Jake Hadley wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Jake Hadley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Hadley at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Hadley has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Candelario

Red Corner

Jake Hadley

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1439

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Candelario

oldest →

vs Tatsuro Taira · May 22

latest

Jake Hadley

oldest →

KOvs Malcolm Gordon · Mar 23

vs Cody Durden · Aug 23

vs Charles Johnson · May 24

vs Caolan Loughran · Jul 24

vs Cameron Smotherman · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos CandelarioMetricJake Hadley

3.97

Strikes / min

3.80

5.17

Strikes absorbed / min

4.16

44%

Strike defense

61%

2.28

TDs / 15 min

0.33

53%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos CandelarioJake Hadley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Candelario(2 fights)Jake Hadley(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -56.5|Blue +56.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos CandelarioTargetJake Hadley

By target zone

31% acc · 45%

Head

38% acc · 50%

71% acc · 32%

Body

80% acc · 27%

94% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

46% acc · 97%

Distance

46% acc · 72%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

Ground

96% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Candelario rounds

even

Jake Hadley rounds

Round 1Carlos Candelario edged it

Sig. strikes58

Takedowns0

Control0:00

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jake Hadley edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:39

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 148

Sig Strikes

90 / 169

45.5%

Sig Str %

59%

69 / 148

Total Strikes

107 / 188

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:39

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jake Hadley	50 / 116	50 / 116	0 / 0	0
1	Carlos Candelario	58 / 123	58 / 123	0 / 0	0
2	Jake Hadley	40 / 53	57 / 72	0 / 0	1
2	Carlos Candelario	11 / 25	11 / 25	1 / 1	0

Carlos Candelario

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2

Jake Hadley

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7