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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Zhang Weili won · SUB R2

Elo1497

Elo1509

Carla EsparzavsZhang WeiliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Zhang Weili won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:05

Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsZhang Weili: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Zhang Weili wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Zhang Weili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zhang Weili has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Weili (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Carla Esparza

Red Corner

Zhang Weili

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1497

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'1"

Height

5'4"

160.02 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carla Esparza

oldest →

vs Michelle Waterson · May 20

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Zhang Weili

oldest →

KOvs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Jun 22

vs Amanda Lemos · Aug 23

vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 24

vs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 25

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carla EsparzaMetricZhang Weili

2.19

Strikes / min

4.66

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

54%

Strike defense

53%

3.28

TDs / 15 min

1.96

47%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68Δ 2.71 — meaningful gap+2.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carla EsparzaZhang Weili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carla Esparza(10 fights)Zhang Weili(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.7|Blue +11.7

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carla EsparzaTargetZhang Weili

By target zone

19% acc · 100%

Head

34% acc · 54%

0% acc

Body

89% acc · 22%

Leg

82% acc · 24%

By position

19% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 65%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

87% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carla Esparza rounds

even

Zhang Weili rounds

Round 1Zhang Weili edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:53

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 2Zhang Weili edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:02

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 32

Sig Strikes

37 / 78

19%

Sig Str %

40%

19 / 50

Total Strikes

42 / 90

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

16.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:55

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zhang Weili	33 / 65	38 / 77	0 / 0	0
1	Carla Esparza	5 / 27	18 / 45	1 / 3	0
2	Zhang Weili	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 0	1
2	Carla Esparza	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 1	0

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15

Zhang Weili

StanceSwitch

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights9