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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Carla Esparza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1529

Carla EsparzavsVirna JandirobaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · Saturday, April 27, 2019Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Carla Esparza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsVirna Jandiroba: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carla Esparza at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Virna Jandiroba has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carla Esparza

Red Corner

Virna Jandiroba

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1497

Elo

1529

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carla EsparzaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Virna Jandiroba

oldest →

vs Loopy Godinez · Mar 24

SUBvs Amanda Lemos · Jul 24

vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 25

vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 25

DECvs Tabatha Ricci · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carla EsparzaMetricVirna Jandiroba

2.19

Strikes / min

2.27

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

54%

Strike defense

55%

3.28

TDs / 15 min

3.13

47%

Takedown defense

72%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68evenly matched on net striking-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carla EsparzaVirna Jandiroba

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carla Esparza(10 fights)Virna Jandiroba(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.9|Blue +31.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carla EsparzaTargetVirna Jandiroba

By target zone

42% acc · 72%

Head

39% acc · 76%

86% acc · 24%

Body

100% acc · 24%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

40% acc · 48%

Distance

43% acc · 76%

67% acc · 32%

Clinch

50% acc · 18%

56% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carla Esparza rounds

even

Virna Jandiroba rounds

Round 1Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control2:37

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:43

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:42Control

Round 3Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:05

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 51

Sig Strikes

17 / 37

51%

Sig Str %

47%

97 / 128

Total Strikes

64 / 89

4 / 10

TDs

3 / 9

55.3%

TD %

36%

Sub Att

Rev

5:25

Ctrl Time

3:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Virna Jandiroba	7 / 10	22 / 26	1 / 4
1	Carla Esparza	8 / 12	26 / 32	2 / 2
2	Virna Jandiroba	7 / 15	24 / 35	1 / 3
2	Carla Esparza	9 / 20	28 / 40	1 / 6
3	Virna Jandiroba	3 / 12	18 / 28	1 / 2
3	Carla Esparza	8 / 19	43 / 56	1 / 2

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15

Virna Jandiroba

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13