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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Tecia Pennington won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1498

Carla EsparzavsTecia PenningtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Tecia Pennington won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsTecia Pennington: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tecia Pennington wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Tecia Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tecia Pennington has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carla Esparza

Red Corner

Tecia Pennington

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1497

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'1"

160.02 cm

Reach

152.4 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carla Esparza

oldest →

vs Michelle Waterson · May 20

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

latest

Tecia Pennington

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · May 24

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 25

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carla EsparzaMetricTecia Pennington

2.19

Strikes / min

4.73

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.48

54%

Strike defense

61%

3.28

TDs / 15 min

0.56

47%

Takedown defense

62%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carla EsparzaTecia Pennington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carla Esparza(10 fights)Tecia Pennington(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +546.0|Blue -546.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carla EsparzaTargetTecia Pennington

By target zone

27% acc · 77%

Head

30% acc · 35%

67% acc · 10%

Body

92% acc · 14%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

89% acc · 51%

By position

30% acc · 85%

Distance

53% acc · 94%

0% acc

Clinch

63% acc · 6%

60% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carla Esparza rounds

even

Tecia Pennington rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:52

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tecia Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control0:29

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tecia Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:19

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 123

Sig Strikes

80 / 150

29.3%

Sig Str %

51%

116 / 215

Total Strikes

94 / 166

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

66.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:40

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tecia Pennington	13 / 38	19 / 44	0 / 0
1	Carla Esparza	6 / 26	77 / 105	1 / 3
2	Tecia Pennington	31 / 55	32 / 56	0 / 0
2	Carla Esparza	12 / 43	17 / 51	2 / 3
3	Tecia Pennington	36 / 57	43 / 66	0 / 0
3	Carla Esparza	21 / 54	22 / 59	1 / 1

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15

Tecia Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach60.0"

Fights4