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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Tatiana Suarez won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1497

Elo1527

Carla EsparzavsTatiana SuarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Saturday, September 8, 2018Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Tatiana Suarez won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:33

Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsTatiana Suarez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Tatiana Suarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carla Esparza at +335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carla Esparza has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tatiana Suarez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Carla Esparza

Red Corner

Tatiana Suarez

Blue Corner

+335

(23%)

Vegas Odds

-420

(81%)

1497

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'1"

Height

5'5"

160.02 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carla EsparzaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Tatiana SuarezW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Montana De La Rosa · Feb 23

SUBvs Jessica Andrade · Aug 23

vs Zhang Weili · Feb 25

vs Amanda Lemos · Sep 25

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carla EsparzaMetricTatiana Suarez

2.19

Strikes / min

2.86

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

1.63

54%

Strike defense

44%

3.28

TDs / 15 min

4.52

47%

Takedown defense

57%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap+1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carla EsparzaTatiana Suarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carla Esparza(10 fights)Tatiana Suarez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.4|Blue +30.4

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carla EsparzaTargetTatiana Suarez

By target zone

20% acc · 17%

Head

83% acc · 78%

100% acc · 83%

Body

83% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

0% acc

Distance

55% acc · 7%

86% acc · 100%

Clinch

75% acc · 7%

Ground

89% acc · 85%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carla Esparza rounds

even

Tatiana Suarez rounds

Round 1Tatiana Suarez edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:37Control

Round 2Tatiana Suarez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:04

15Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

4:11Control

Round 3Tatiana Suarez edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 10

Sig Strikes

82 / 98

38.7%

Sig Str %

84%

12 / 18

Total Strikes

136 / 155

0 / 2

TDs

9 / 11

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

12:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tatiana Suarez	34 / 41	56 / 65	3 / 3
1	Carla Esparza	0 / 1	4 / 7	0 / 0
2	Tatiana Suarez	15 / 17	31 / 34	4 / 6
2	Carla Esparza	5 / 6	6 / 7	0 / 1
3	Tatiana Suarez	33 / 40	49 / 56	2 / 2
3	Carla Esparza	1 / 3	2 / 4	0 / 1

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15

Tatiana Suarez

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9