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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Carla Esparza won · SUB R3

Elo1497

Elo1499

Carla EsparzavsRose NamajunasUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale · Friday, December 12, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carla Esparza won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:26

Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsRose Namajunas: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rose Namajunas wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rose Namajunas at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rose Namajunas has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carla Esparza

Red Corner

Rose Namajunas

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1497

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'5"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carla EsparzaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Rose Namajunas

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24

vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25

vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carla EsparzaMetricRose Namajunas

2.19

Strikes / min

3.50

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

54%

Strike defense

63%

3.28

TDs / 15 min

1.47

47%

Takedown defense

62%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68evenly matched on net striking+0.12

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carla Esparza(10 fights)Rose Namajunas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carla EsparzaTargetRose Namajunas

By target zone

46% acc · 86%

Head

30% acc · 57%

60% acc · 14%

Body

57% acc · 29%

0% acc

Leg

80% acc · 14%

By position

24% acc · 26%

Distance

38% acc · 79%

52% acc · 26%

Clinch

40% acc · 14%

83% acc · 48%

Ground

50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carla Esparza rounds

even

Rose Namajunas rounds

Round 1Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns3

Control0:41

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:09

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:13

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 90

Sig Strikes

28 / 72

58.7%

Sig Str %

42.3%

107 / 180

Total Strikes

29 / 73

5 / 7

TDs

1 / 3

75%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

5:03

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rose Namajunas	18 / 47	18 / 47	1 / 2	0
1	Carla Esparza	19 / 54	34 / 72	3 / 4	0
2	Rose Namajunas	9 / 23	10 / 24	0 / 1	0
2	Carla Esparza	19 / 31	57 / 80	1 / 2	0
3	Rose Namajunas	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
3	Carla Esparza	4 / 5	16 / 28	1 / 1	1

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights19