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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Randa Markos won · S-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1494

Carla EsparzavsRanda MarkosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Sunday, February 19, 2017Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Randa Markos won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(67.1%)

Actual result: Randa Markos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carla Esparza at -260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Carla Esparza

Red Corner

Randa Markos

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1497

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'4"

160.02 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carla EsparzaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Randa Markos

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 20

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Sep 20

vs Kanako Murata · Nov 20

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 21

vs Livinha Souza · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carla EsparzaMetricRanda Markos

2.19

Strikes / min

2.97

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

54%

Strike defense

58%

3.28

TDs / 15 min

1.12

47%

Takedown defense

52%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carla EsparzaRanda Markos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carla Esparza(10 fights)Randa Markos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.2|Blue -3.2

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carla EsparzaTargetRanda Markos

By target zone

24% acc · 94%

Head

43% acc · 98%

40% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 2%

Leg

By position

20% acc · 75%

Distance

32% acc · 56%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

0% acc

75% acc · 19%

Ground

88% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carla Esparza rounds

even

Randa Markos rounds

Round 1Randa Markos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:15

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:06

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control0:24

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 132

Sig Strikes

48 / 110

25.3%

Sig Str %

42%

37 / 137

Total Strikes

62 / 126

4 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:45

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Randa Markos	26 / 49	31 / 55	0 / 0	0
1	Carla Esparza	10 / 29	13 / 32	1 / 1	0
2	Randa Markos	10 / 25	19 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Carla Esparza	13 / 51	14 / 52	1 / 1	1
3	Randa Markos	12 / 36	12 / 37	0 / 0	0
3	Carla Esparza	9 / 52	10 / 53	2 / 8	0

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15

Randa Markos

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights17