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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Carla Esparza won · S-DEC R3
Elo1497
Carla Esparza
Elo1493

Carla EsparzavsMichelle WatersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 9, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Carla Esparza won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Michelle Waterson wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michelle Waterson at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Carla Esparza
Red Corner
VS
Michelle Waterson
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
1497
Elo
1493
38
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'1"
Height
5'3"
160.02 cm
Reach
157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carla EsparzaL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20
W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21
W
vs Rose Namajunas · May 22
L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22
L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24
latest
Michelle Waterson
oldest →
W
vs Felice Herrig · Oct 18
W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Mar 19
L
vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Oct 19
W
vs Angela Hill · Sep 20
L
vs Marina Rodriguez · May 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carla EsparzaMetricMichelle Waterson
2.19
Strikes / min
—
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
—
54%
Strike defense
—
3.28
TDs / 15 min
—
47%
Takedown defense
—
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1521 vs 1536Strikes2.2 vs 3.4Takedowns3.5 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.30 vs 1.20Form0.5 vs 0.0
Carla EsparzaMichelle Waterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Carla Esparza(10 fights)Michelle Waterson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.6|Blue -3.6
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights15

Michelle Waterson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights3