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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Carla Esparza won · S-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1483

Carla EsparzavsMarina RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Carla Esparza won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsMarina Rodriguez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carla Esparza at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Carla Esparza

Red Corner

Marina Rodriguez

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-182

(65%)

1497

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'6"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carla EsparzaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Michelle Waterson · May 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Marina RodriguezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23

KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24

KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carla EsparzaMetricMarina Rodriguez

2.19

Strikes / min

4.51

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

54%

Strike defense

55%

3.28

TDs / 15 min

0.27

47%

Takedown defense

61%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68Δ 2.18 — meaningful gap+1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carla EsparzaMarina Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carla Esparza(10 fights)Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.8|Blue -13.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -273.0|Blue +273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carla EsparzaTargetMarina Rodriguez

By target zone

52% acc · 88%

Head

49% acc · 85%

100% acc · 9%

Body

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

25% acc · 12%

Distance

39% acc · 38%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

65% acc · 85%

Ground

68% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carla Esparza rounds

even

Marina Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:21

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:28

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns3

Control3:05

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 60

Sig Strikes

40 / 76

54.7%

Sig Str %

50%

118 / 152

Total Strikes

91 / 129

5 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

52.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:54

Ctrl Time

1:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marina Rodriguez	20 / 33	30 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Carla Esparza	8 / 12	49 / 56	1 / 2	0
2	Marina Rodriguez	14 / 29	43 / 58	0 / 0	0
2	Carla Esparza	7 / 19	32 / 47	1 / 3	1
3	Marina Rodriguez	6 / 14	18 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Carla Esparza	18 / 29	37 / 49	3 / 4	0

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15

Marina Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13