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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Carla Esparza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1364

Carla EsparzavsJuliana LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Saturday, April 23, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carla Esparza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Juliana Lima wins(78.0%)

Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Juliana Lima at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Juliana Lima has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carla Esparza

Red Corner

Juliana Lima

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1497

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'5"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carla EsparzaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Juliana LimaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nina Ansaroff · Nov 14

vs Ericka Almeida · May 15

vs JJ Aldrich · Dec 16

SUBvs Tecia Torres · Jul 17

vs Randa Markos · Jan 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carla EsparzaMetricJuliana Lima

2.19

Strikes / min

1.94

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

2.11

54%

Strike defense

55%

3.28

TDs / 15 min

1.72

47%

Takedown defense

70%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68evenly matched on net striking-0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carla EsparzaJuliana Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carla Esparza(10 fights)Juliana Lima(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.3|Blue -133.3

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carla EsparzaTargetJuliana Lima

By target zone

56% acc · 54%

Head

53% acc · 69%

87% acc · 46%

Body

88% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

38% acc · 18%

Distance

41% acc · 27%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

83% acc · 19%

81% acc · 79%

Ground

70% acc · 54%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carla Esparza rounds

even

Juliana Lima rounds

Round 1Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:20

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:28

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 3Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns3

Control2:47

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 42

Sig Strikes

26 / 43

62%

Sig Str %

60.7%

130 / 167

Total Strikes

56 / 76

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 3

77.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:35

Ctrl Time

2:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Juliana Lima	10 / 15	18 / 23	0 / 2
1	Carla Esparza	7 / 13	37 / 52	1 / 1
2	Juliana Lima	8 / 16	15 / 23	0 / 1
2	Carla Esparza	5 / 11	58 / 73	1 / 3
3	Juliana Lima	8 / 12	23 / 30	0 / 0
3	Carla Esparza	16 / 18	35 / 42	3 / 3

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15

Juliana Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7