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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1497

Elo1427

Carla EsparzavsJoanna JedrzejczykUFC Prediction Result

UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · Saturday, March 14, 2015Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:17

Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsJoanna Jedrzejczyk: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(72.9%)

Actual result: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carla Esparza at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Carla Esparza

Red Corner

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1497

Elo

1427

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'6"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carla EsparzaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19

vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20

KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carla EsparzaMetricJoanna Jedrzejczyk

2.19

Strikes / min

6.28

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

54%

Strike defense

62%

3.28

TDs / 15 min

0.27

47%

Takedown defense

80%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68Δ 3.71 — meaningful gap+3.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carla EsparzaJoanna Jedrzejczyk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carla Esparza(10 fights)Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +69.5|Blue -69.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carla EsparzaTargetJoanna Jedrzejczyk

By target zone

16% acc · 75%

Head

50% acc · 94%

50% acc · 25%

Body

75% acc · 6%

0% acc

Leg

By position

11% acc · 50%

Distance

43% acc · 60%

67% acc · 50%

Clinch

64% acc · 30%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carla Esparza rounds

even

Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds

Round 1Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:49

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:20

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 22

Sig Strikes

53 / 105

17.5%

Sig Str %

45.5%

6 / 24

Total Strikes

55 / 107

1 / 17

TDs

0 / 0

5.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:09

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	11 / 41	13 / 43	0 / 0
1	Carla Esparza	3 / 12	5 / 14	1 / 9
2	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	42 / 64	42 / 64	0 / 0
2	Carla Esparza	1 / 10	1 / 10	0 / 8

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15