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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Carla Esparza won · M-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1512

Carla EsparzavsAlexa GrassoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Saturday, September 21, 2019Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Carla Esparza won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsAlexa Grasso: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carla Esparza at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Carla Esparza

Red Corner

Alexa Grasso

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1497

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'5"

160.02 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carla EsparzaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Alexa Grasso

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22

SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24

vs Natalia Silva · May 25

KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carla EsparzaMetricAlexa Grasso

2.19

Strikes / min

4.11

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

54%

Strike defense

58%

3.28

TDs / 15 min

0.40

47%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carla EsparzaAlexa Grasso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carla Esparza(10 fights)Alexa Grasso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.5|Blue +15.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carla EsparzaTargetAlexa Grasso

By target zone

45% acc · 61%

Head

42% acc · 91%

79% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 9%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 64%

Distance

39% acc · 76%

67% acc · 14%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

83% acc · 23%

Ground

89% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carla Esparza rounds

even

Alexa Grasso rounds

Round 1Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control1:31

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control3:25

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Alexa Grasso edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control2:16

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 80

Sig Strikes

45 / 103

57.3%

Sig Str %

41%

115 / 157

Total Strikes

103 / 169

4 / 11

TDs

0 / 1

38.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:12

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexa Grasso	17 / 41	33 / 57	0 / 1	0
1	Carla Esparza	18 / 36	36 / 54	2 / 4	0
2	Alexa Grasso	6 / 20	35 / 55	0 / 0	0
2	Carla Esparza	13 / 18	56 / 64	2 / 3	0
3	Alexa Grasso	22 / 42	35 / 57	0 / 0	1
3	Carla Esparza	13 / 26	23 / 39	0 / 4	0

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14