Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gleison Tibau won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1366
Gleison Tibau

Caol UnovsGleison TibauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi · Wednesday, March 31, 2010Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Gleison Tibau won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:13

Model Prediction: Caol Uno wins(63.8%)

Actual result: Gleison Tibau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caol Uno at +270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Gleison Tibau has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Gleison Tibau has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Caol Uno
Red Corner
VS
Gleison Tibau
Blue Corner
+270
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-330
(77%)
1490
Elo
1366
51
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Caol UnoNo prior UFC fights on record.
Gleison TibauL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Norman Parke · Jan 15
L
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15
L
vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15
L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18
L
vs Desmond Green · Jun 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Caol UnoMetricGleison Tibau
1.91
Strikes / min
1.95
1.90
Strikes absorbed / min
2.51
50%
Strike defense
63%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
4.08
37%
Takedown defense
92%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.01evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes28.9 vs 13.0Takedowns2.2 vs 4.7Sub Atts0.22 vs 1.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Caol UnoGleison Tibau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Caol Uno(1 fights)Gleison Tibau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +124.4|Blue -124.4
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Caol UnoTargetGleison Tibau

By target zone

2
12% acc · 33%
Head
21
36% acc · 95%
0
0% acc
Body
0
4
44% acc · 67%
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

6
21% acc · 100%
Distance
6
17% acc · 27%
0
Clinch
1
50% acc · 5%
0
Ground
15
71% acc · 68%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Caol Uno rounds
0
even
1
Gleison Tibau rounds
Round 1Gleison Tibau edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:30Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 28
Sig Strikes
22 / 59
21%
Sig Str %
37%
10 / 34
Total Strikes
26 / 65
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:30

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gleison Tibau22 / 5926 / 651 / 10
1Caol Uno6 / 2810 / 340 / 00

Caol Uno

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights1

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights18