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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Serhiy Sidey won · U-DEC R3

Elo1452

Elo1515

Cameron SmothermanvsSerhiy SideyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 3, 2025Des Moines, Iowa, USA

Official fight result

Serhiy Sidey won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCameron Smotherman: Pressure fightervsSerhiy Sidey: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Serhiy Sidey wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Serhiy Sidey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Serhiy Sidey at -138 American odds

+$72 profit

$172 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cameron Smotherman has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Serhiy Sidey (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Cameron Smotherman

Red Corner

Serhiy Sidey

Blue Corner

+118

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-138

(58%)

1452

Elo

1515

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cameron SmothermanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Hadley · Oct 24

vs Ricky Simon · Jun 25

KOvs Kai Asakura · May 26

latest

Serhiy Sidey

oldest →

vs Ramon Taveras · Jan 24

vs Garrett Armfield · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cameron SmothermanMetricSerhiy Sidey

4.07

Strikes / min

4.49

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

4.26

58%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.58

62%

Takedown defense

20%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.55evenly matched on net striking+0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cameron SmothermanSerhiy Sidey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cameron Smotherman(4 fights)Serhiy Sidey(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -63.5|Blue +63.5

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cameron SmothermanTargetSerhiy Sidey

By target zone

38% acc · 74%

Head

31% acc · 55%

75% acc · 26%

Body

68% acc · 27%

Leg

83% acc · 18%

By position

43% acc · 91%

Distance

40% acc · 89%

50% acc · 9%

Clinch

60% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cameron Smotherman rounds

even

Serhiy Sidey rounds

Round 1Serhiy Sidey edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Serhiy Sidey edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 3Cameron Smotherman edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 134

Sig Strikes

55 / 132

43.3%

Sig Str %

40.3%

61 / 137

Total Strikes

66 / 149

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 12

—

TD %

27.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Serhiy Sidey	27 / 50	28 / 51	0 / 1	0
1	Cameron Smotherman	22 / 43	25 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Serhiy Sidey	11 / 39	21 / 55	4 / 7	0
2	Cameron Smotherman	12 / 29	12 / 29	0 / 0	0
3	Serhiy Sidey	17 / 43	17 / 43	1 / 4	1
3	Cameron Smotherman	24 / 62	24 / 62	0 / 0	0

Cameron Smotherman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Serhiy Sidey

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3