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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Cam Rowston won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1560
Elo1485
Andre Petroski

Cam RowstonvsAndre PetroskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Saturday, September 27, 2025Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Cam Rowston won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:41

Model Prediction: Cam Rowston wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Cam Rowston wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cam Rowston at +146 American odds

+$146 profit

$246 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cam Rowston is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Andre Petroski has lost 80% of fights by KO.
  • Andre Petroski has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Andre Petroski (52.9%).
  • Cam Rowston has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cam Rowston
Red Corner
VS
Andre Petroski
Blue Corner
+146
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-174
(64%)
1560
Elo
1485
31
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'3"
Height
6'0"
198.12 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cam RowstonW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Cody Brundage · Jan 26
W
DECvs Robert Bryczek · May 26
latest
Andre PetroskiL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Josh Fremd · Jul 24
W
vs Dylan Budka · Sep 24
W
vs Rodolfo Vieira · Feb 25
L
vs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 25
L
KOvs Cody Brundage · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cam RowstonMetricAndre Petroski
4.60
Strikes / min
2.81
2.12
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
52%
Strike defense
53%
1.34
TDs / 15 min
3.15
33%
Takedown defense
86%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.48Δ 2.46 — meaningful gap+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1570Strikes4.3 vs 2.8Takedowns0.5 vs 3.1Sub Atts0.50 vs 1.30Form0.0 vs 0.1
Cam RowstonAndre Petroski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701498152515531580← oldermost recent →
Cam Rowston(3 fights)Andre Petroski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +75.4|Blue -75.4
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Grappler Score
Red +49.1|Blue -49.1
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cam RowstonTargetAndre Petroski

By target zone

8
26% acc · 67%
Head
0
0% acc
1
50% acc · 8%
Body
0
0% acc
3
100% acc · 25%
Leg
7
88% acc · 100%

By position

8
42% acc · 67%
Distance
7
54% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
4
24% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Cam Rowston rounds
0
even
0
Andre Petroski rounds
Round 1Cam Rowston edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:36
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
12 / 36
Sig Strikes
7 / 13
33%
Sig Str %
53%
20 / 48
Total Strikes
7 / 13
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:36
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Andre Petroski7 / 137 / 130 / 00
1Cam Rowston12 / 3620 / 480 / 00

Cam Rowston

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights2

Andre Petroski

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights12