Featherweight

3 Rounds

Youssef Zalal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1474

Elo1526

Calvin KattarvsYoussef ZalalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, February 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Youssef Zalal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCalvin Kattar: Pressure fightervsYoussef Zalal: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Youssef Zalal wins(77.6%)

Actual result: Youssef Zalal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Youssef Zalal at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Calvin Kattar enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Youssef Zalal has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Calvin Kattar has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Youssef Zalal (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Calvin Kattar

Red Corner

Youssef Zalal

Blue Corner

+350

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-450

(82%)

1474

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Calvin KattarL4 streak

oldest →

vs Giga Chikadze · Jan 22

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 22

KOvs Arnold Allen · Oct 22

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 24

vs Steve Garcia · Jul 25

latest

Youssef Zalal

oldest →

SUBvs Billy Quarantillo · Mar 24

SUBvs Jarno Errens · Aug 24

SUBvs Jack Shore · Nov 24

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Oct 25

DECvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Calvin KattarMetricYoussef Zalal

4.41

Strikes / min

2.78

6.55

Strikes absorbed / min

1.79

54%

Strike defense

64%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

1.84

77%

Takedown defense

55%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.14Δ 3.13 — meaningful gap+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Calvin KattarYoussef Zalal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Calvin Kattar(10 fights)Youssef Zalal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.6|Blue +52.6

Recent Form

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Calvin KattarTargetYoussef Zalal

By target zone

25% acc · 71%

Head

51% acc · 72%

45% acc · 13%

Body

56% acc · 7%

46% acc · 16%

Leg

80% acc · 22%

By position

27% acc · 92%

Distance

56% acc · 100%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Calvin Kattar rounds

even

Youssef Zalal rounds

Round 1Youssef Zalal edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Youssef Zalal edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 134

Sig Strikes

74 / 133

29.3%

Sig Str %

55%

38 / 134

Total Strikes

75 / 134

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 8

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Youssef Zalal	26 / 46	26 / 46	0 / 1
1	Calvin Kattar	8 / 23	8 / 23	0 / 0
2	Youssef Zalal	27 / 46	28 / 47	0 / 3
2	Calvin Kattar	10 / 37	10 / 37	0 / 0
3	Youssef Zalal	21 / 41	21 / 41	0 / 4
3	Calvin Kattar	20 / 74	20 / 74	0 / 0

Calvin Kattar

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Youssef Zalal

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11