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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Calvin Kattar won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1474

Elo1496

Calvin KattarvsShane BurgosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, January 20, 2018Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Calvin Kattar won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:32

Style matchupCalvin Kattar: Pressure fightervsShane Burgos: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Shane Burgos wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Calvin Kattar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Burgos at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Calvin Kattar enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Calvin Kattar is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Shane Burgos has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Calvin Kattar

Red Corner

Shane Burgos

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1474

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Calvin KattarL5 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 22

KOvs Arnold Allen · Oct 22

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 24

vs Youssef Zalal · Feb 25

vs Steve Garcia · Jul 25

latest

Shane BurgosW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Nov 19

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 20

KOvs Edson Barboza · May 21

vs Billy Quarantillo · Nov 21

vs Charles Jourdain · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Calvin KattarMetricShane Burgos

4.41

Strikes / min

7.40

6.55

Strikes absorbed / min

6.78

54%

Strike defense

56%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.43

77%

Takedown defense

91%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.14Δ 2.76 — meaningful gap+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Calvin KattarShane Burgos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Calvin Kattar(10 fights)Shane Burgos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.8|Blue +22.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -3.1|Blue +3.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Calvin KattarTargetShane Burgos

By target zone

42% acc · 86%

Head

37% acc · 52%

50% acc · 6%

Body

66% acc · 28%

70% acc · 8%

Leg

82% acc · 20%

By position

43% acc · 93%

Distance

47% acc · 97%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

75% acc · 3%

50% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Calvin Kattar rounds

even

Shane Burgos rounds

Round 1Calvin Kattar edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:07

55Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Calvin Kattar edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 194

Sig Strikes

89 / 186

43.3%

Sig Str %

36.7%

86 / 195

Total Strikes

91 / 188

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shane Burgos	33 / 78	33 / 78	0 / 0
1	Calvin Kattar	40 / 76	40 / 76	0 / 0
2	Shane Burgos	55 / 101	57 / 103	0 / 0
2	Calvin Kattar	35 / 94	36 / 95	0 / 1
3	Shane Burgos	1 / 7	1 / 7	0 / 0
3	Calvin Kattar	10 / 24	10 / 24	0 / 0

Calvin Kattar

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Shane Burgos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11