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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Josh Emmett won · S-DEC R5

Elo1474

Elo1461

Calvin KattarvsJosh EmmettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · Saturday, June 18, 2022Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Josh Emmett won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Josh Emmett wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Josh Emmett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Emmett at +235 American odds

+$235 profit

$335 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Calvin Kattar enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Calvin Kattar has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Calvin Kattar

Red Corner

Josh Emmett

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1474

Elo

1461

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'6"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Calvin KattarL4 streak

oldest →

vs Giga Chikadze · Jan 22

KOvs Arnold Allen · Oct 22

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 24

vs Youssef Zalal · Feb 25

vs Steve Garcia · Jul 25

latest

Josh EmmettL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Calvin KattarMetricJosh Emmett

4.41

Strikes / min

3.67

6.55

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

54%

Strike defense

59%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

1.07

77%

Takedown defense

43%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.14Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Calvin KattarJosh Emmett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Calvin Kattar(10 fights)Josh Emmett(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.4|Blue -12.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Calvin KattarTargetJosh Emmett

By target zone

114

32% acc · 88%

Head

26% acc · 68%

65% acc · 12%

Body

70% acc · 24%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

89% acc · 7%

By position

130

35% acc · 100%

Distance

106

32% acc · 99%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Calvin Kattar rounds

even

Josh Emmett rounds

Round 1Calvin Kattar edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Josh Emmett edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Josh Emmett edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Calvin Kattar edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 5Calvin Kattar edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

130 / 375

Sig Strikes

107 / 332

33.6%

Sig Str %

31.8%

131 / 376

Total Strikes

107 / 332

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Josh Emmett	11 / 35	11 / 35	0 / 1
1	Calvin Kattar	14 / 39	15 / 40	0 / 0
2	Josh Emmett	26 / 73	26 / 73	0 / 0
2	Calvin Kattar	22 / 78	22 / 78	0 / 0
3	Josh Emmett	27 / 77	27 / 77	0 / 0
3	Calvin Kattar	19 / 66	19 / 66	0 / 0
4	Calvin Kattar	41 / 106	41 / 106	0 / 0
4	Josh Emmett	21 / 80	21 / 80	0 / 2
5	Josh Emmett	22 / 67	22 / 67	0 / 1
5	Calvin Kattar	34 / 86	34 / 86	0 / 0

Calvin Kattar

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17