Featherweight

5 Rounds

Arnold Allen won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1474

Elo1511

Calvin KattarvsArnold AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Saturday, October 29, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Arnold Allen won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:08

Style matchupCalvin Kattar: Pressure fightervsArnold Allen: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Arnold Allen wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Arnold Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Arnold Allen at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Calvin Kattar enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Calvin Kattar

Red Corner

Arnold Allen

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1474

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Calvin KattarL4 streak

oldest →

vs Giga Chikadze · Jan 22

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 22

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 24

vs Youssef Zalal · Feb 25

vs Steve Garcia · Jul 25

latest

Arnold Allen

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24

vs Jean Silva · Jan 26

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Calvin KattarMetricArnold Allen

4.41

Strikes / min

3.47

6.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

54%

Strike defense

60%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.86

77%

Takedown defense

71%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.14Δ 2.57 — meaningful gap+0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Calvin KattarArnold Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Calvin Kattar(10 fights)Arnold Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.5|Blue +37.5

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Calvin KattarTargetArnold Allen

By target zone

11% acc · 36%

Head

38% acc · 75%

75% acc · 43%

Body

40% acc · 7%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

71% acc · 18%

By position

24% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 96%

Clinch

Ground

20% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Calvin Kattar rounds

even

Arnold Allen rounds

Round 1Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 58

Sig Strikes

28 / 67

12%

Sig Str %

45.5%

14 / 58

Total Strikes

28 / 67

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Arnold Allen	27 / 65	27 / 65	0 / 0
1	Calvin Kattar	14 / 57	14 / 57	0 / 0
2	Arnold Allen	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0
2	Calvin Kattar	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0

Calvin Kattar

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14