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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Aljamain Sterling won · U-DEC R3

Elo1474

Elo1524

Calvin KattarvsAljamain SterlingUFC Prediction Result

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Saturday, April 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCalvin Kattar: Pressure fightervsAljamain Sterling: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(79.5%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Calvin Kattar enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Calvin Kattar has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Calvin Kattar

Red Corner

Aljamain Sterling

Blue Corner

+154

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1474

Elo

1524

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Calvin KattarL4 streak

oldest →

vs Giga Chikadze · Jan 22

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 22

KOvs Arnold Allen · Oct 22

vs Youssef Zalal · Feb 25

vs Steve Garcia · Jul 25

latest

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

vs Henry Cejudo · May 23

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Calvin KattarMetricAljamain Sterling

4.41

Strikes / min

4.26

6.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.15

54%

Strike defense

59%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

2.54

77%

Takedown defense

44%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.14Δ 4.25 — meaningful gap+2.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Calvin KattarAljamain Sterling

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Calvin Kattar(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -50.7|Blue +50.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +294.0|Blue -294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Calvin KattarTargetAljamain Sterling

By target zone

27% acc · 88%

Head

30% acc · 31%

33% acc · 13%

Body

88% acc · 38%

Leg

86% acc · 31%

By position

27% acc · 88%

Distance

50% acc · 59%

50% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

0% acc

Ground

55% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Calvin Kattar rounds

even

Aljamain Sterling rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

1:51Control

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:10Control

Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:05

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 29

Sig Strikes

39 / 71

22%

Sig Str %

56.7%

19 / 40

Total Strikes

89 / 128

0 / 0

TDs

8 / 13

—

TD %

63%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

10:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aljamain Sterling	15 / 33	16 / 35	4 / 7
1	Calvin Kattar	6 / 23	10 / 27	0 / 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	14 / 20	30 / 37	2 / 3
2	Calvin Kattar	2 / 5	4 / 7	0 / 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	10 / 18	43 / 56	2 / 3
3	Calvin Kattar	0 / 1	5 / 6	0 / 0

Calvin Kattar

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23