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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Caludio Puelles won · Decision R3
Elo1492
Elo1376

Caludio PuellesvsMarcos MarianoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Saturday, September 21, 2019Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Caludio Puelles won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Caludio Puelles wins(85.9%)

Actual result: Caludio Puelles wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caludio Puelles at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Marcos Mariano (54.1%).
  • Marcos Mariano has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Caludio Puelles
Red Corner
VS
Marcos Mariano
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+325
(24%)
1492
Elo
1376
23
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Caludio PuellesNo prior UFC fights on record.
Marcos Mariano
oldest →
L
SUBvs Lando Vannata · Feb 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Caludio PuellesMetricMarcos Mariano
—
Strikes / min
0.25
—
Strikes absorbed / min
2.11
—
Strike defense
43%
—
TDs / 15 min
0.00
—
Takedown defense
28%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1480Strikes3.1 vs 0.3Takedowns3.1 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.30 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Caludio PuellesMarcos Mariano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Caludio Puelles(1 fights)Marcos Mariano(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +115.6|Blue -115.6
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Caludio Puelles

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights1

Marcos Mariano

StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2