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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Callan Potter won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1412

Callan PottervsMaki PitoloUFC Prediction Result

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Saturday, October 5, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Callan Potter won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCallan Potter: WrestlervsMaki Pitolo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Maki Pitolo wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Callan Potter wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Maki Pitolo at -400 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maki Pitolo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Maki Pitolo is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Callan Potter has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Callan Potter has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Callan Potter

Red Corner

Maki Pitolo

Blue Corner

+325

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-400

(80%)

1492

Elo

1412

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Callan PotterL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jalin Turner · Feb 19

KOvs Song Kenan · Feb 20

latest

Maki PitoloL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Byrd · Jun 20

SUBvs Darren Stewart · Aug 20

vs Impa Kasanganay · Aug 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Feb 21

KOvs Dusko Todorovic · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Callan PotterMetricMaki Pitolo

3.18

Strikes / min

4.10

4.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.93

58%

Strike defense

55%

3.29

TDs / 15 min

2.24

100%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.54Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Callan PotterMaki Pitolo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Callan Potter(3 fights)Maki Pitolo(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +79.8|Blue -79.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Callan PotterTargetMaki Pitolo

By target zone

48% acc · 92%

Head

35% acc · 82%

67% acc · 4%

Body

82% acc · 15%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

46% acc · 85%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Callan Potter rounds

even

Maki Pitolo rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:13

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control2:13

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Callan Potter edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control3:59

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 96

Sig Strikes

60 / 155

49.7%

Sig Str %

37.3%

127 / 198

Total Strikes

103 / 198

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:25

Ctrl Time

1:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Maki Pitolo	26 / 62	45 / 81	0 / 0	1
1	Callan Potter	20 / 38	35 / 59	1 / 2	0
2	Maki Pitolo	27 / 73	45 / 91	0 / 1	0
2	Callan Potter	23 / 48	49 / 82	0 / 0	0
3	Maki Pitolo	7 / 20	13 / 26	0 / 1	0
3	Callan Potter	5 / 10	43 / 57	2 / 2	0

Callan Potter

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Maki Pitolo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6