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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Caio Magalhaes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1358

Elo1379

Caio MagalhaesvsTrevor SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux · Saturday, November 8, 2014Uberlandia, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Caio Magalhaes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:31

Style matchupCaio Magalhaes: Submission grapplervsTrevor Smith: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Trevor Smith wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Caio Magalhaes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trevor Smith at +255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Caio Magalhaes

Red Corner

Trevor Smith

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1358

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Caio MagalhaesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Karlos Vemola · Jun 13

vs Nick Ring · Dec 13

KOvs Luke Zachrich · Apr 14

SUBvs Josh Samman · Jul 15

vs Brad Tavares · Sep 16

latest

Trevor SmithL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16

vs Chris Camozzi · May 17

vs Elias Theodorou · May 18

vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Caio MagalhaesMetricTrevor Smith

2.27

Strikes / min

3.29

2.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

56%

Strike defense

51%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.70

58%

Takedown defense

60%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Caio MagalhaesTrevor Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Caio Magalhaes(7 fights)Trevor Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.7|Blue +20.7

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Caio MagalhaesTargetTrevor Smith

By target zone

64% acc · 100%

Head

40% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

43% acc · 33%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

75% acc · 33%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Caio Magalhaes rounds

even

Trevor Smith rounds

Round 1Caio Magalhaes edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 14

Sig Strikes

2 / 5

64%

Sig Str %

40%

10 / 15

Total Strikes

2 / 5

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trevor Smith	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Caio Magalhaes	9 / 14	10 / 15	0 / 0	0

Caio Magalhaes

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12