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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Caio Magalhaes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1358
Caio Magalhaes
Elo1490

Caio MagalhaesvsLuke ZachrichUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Caio Magalhaes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:44

Style matchupCaio Magalhaes: Submission grapplervsLuke Zachrich: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Caio Magalhaes wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Caio Magalhaes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Magalhaes at -295 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Caio Magalhaes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Luke Zachrich has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Luke Zachrich has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Caio Magalhaes
Red Corner
VS
Luke Zachrich
Blue Corner
-295
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
1358
Elo
1490
38
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Caio MagalhaesL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Karlos Vemola · Jun 13
W
vs Nick Ring · Dec 13
W
KOvs Trevor Smith · Nov 14
L
SUBvs Josh Samman · Jul 15
L
vs Brad Tavares · Sep 16
latest
Luke Zachrich
oldest →
W
vs Guilherme Vasconcelos · Jul 14
L
SUBvs Daniel Kelly · Nov 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Caio MagalhaesMetricLuke Zachrich
2.27
Strikes / min
4.56
2.78
Strikes absorbed / min
4.46
56%
Strike defense
62%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
0.74
58%
Takedown defense
80%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1500Strikes25.0 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts1.67 vs —Form0.8 vs 0.0
Caio MagalhaesLuke Zachrich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Caio Magalhaes(7 fights)Luke Zachrich(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -132.4|Blue +132.4
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Caio MagalhaesTargetLuke Zachrich

By target zone

13
59% acc · 81%
Head
1
13% acc · 33%
3
75% acc · 19%
Body
0
0
Leg
2
67% acc · 67%

By position

7
47% acc · 44%
Distance
3
30% acc · 100%
4
67% acc · 25%
Clinch
0
0% acc
5
100% acc · 31%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Caio Magalhaes rounds
0
even
0
Luke Zachrich rounds
Round 1Caio Magalhaes edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
16 / 26
Sig Strikes
3 / 11
61%
Sig Str %
27%
18 / 28
Total Strikes
3 / 11
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Luke Zachrich3 / 113 / 110 / 00
1Caio Magalhaes16 / 2618 / 280 / 00

Caio Magalhaes

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7

Luke Zachrich

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3