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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Caio Magalhaes won · SUB R2

Elo1358

Elo1352

Caio MagalhaesvsKarlos VemolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · Saturday, June 8, 2013Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Caio Magalhaes won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:49

Style matchupCaio Magalhaes: Submission grapplervsKarlos Vemola: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Caio Magalhaes wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Caio Magalhaes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Magalhaes at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karlos Vemola threatens submissions; Caio Magalhaes has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Caio Magalhaes has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Caio Magalhaes has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Caio Magalhaes

Red Corner

Karlos Vemola

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1358

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Caio MagalhaesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nick Ring · Dec 13

KOvs Luke Zachrich · Apr 14

KOvs Trevor Smith · Nov 14

SUBvs Josh Samman · Jul 15

vs Brad Tavares · Sep 16

latest

Karlos Vemola

oldest →

vs Jon Madsen · Jul 10

KOvs Seth Petruzelli · Nov 10

vs Ronny Markes · Aug 11

SUBvs Mike Massenzio · May 12

SUBvs Francis Carmont · Jul 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Caio MagalhaesMetricKarlos Vemola

2.27

Strikes / min

1.67

2.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

56%

Strike defense

37%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.93

58%

Takedown defense

31%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Caio MagalhaesKarlos Vemola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Caio Magalhaes(7 fights)Karlos Vemola(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.7|Blue -5.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +33.0|Blue -33.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Caio MagalhaesTargetKarlos Vemola

By target zone

52% acc · 67%

Head

56% acc · 93%

83% acc · 24%

Body

100% acc · 7%

50% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 5%

Distance

0% acc

67% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

58% acc · 67%

Ground

60% acc · 97%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Caio Magalhaes rounds

even

Karlos Vemola rounds

Round 1Karlos Vemola edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:41Control

Round 2Caio Magalhaes edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:30

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 37

Sig Strikes

30 / 52

76%

Sig Str %

46%

58 / 84

Total Strikes

62 / 99

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 6

50%

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

2:30

Ctrl Time

4:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Karlos Vemola	29 / 49	61 / 96	2 / 5	0
1	Caio Magalhaes	3 / 3	18 / 24	0 / 1	4
2	Karlos Vemola	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 1	0
2	Caio Magalhaes	18 / 34	40 / 60	1 / 1	1

Caio Magalhaes

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Karlos Vemola

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6