← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Brendson Ribeiro won · S-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1440

Caio MachadovsBrendson RibeiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Saturday, November 2, 2024Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Brendson Ribeiro won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Caio Machado wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Brendson Ribeiro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Machado at -192 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendson Ribeiro enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Caio Machado has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Caio Machado has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Caio Machado (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Caio Machado

Red Corner

Brendson Ribeiro

Blue Corner

-192

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1481

Elo

1440

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Caio MachadoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mick Parkin · Nov 23

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Apr 24

latest

Brendson RibeiroL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Diyar Nurgozhay · Mar 25

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Jun 25

KOvs Oumar Sy · Sep 25

SUBvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Apr 26

DECvs Magomed Tuchalov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Caio MachadoMetricBrendson Ribeiro

5.82

Strikes / min

3.04

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

63%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.85

82%

Takedown defense

21%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.95Δ 3.82 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Caio MachadoBrendson Ribeiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Caio Machado(3 fights)Brendson Ribeiro(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.3|Blue -40.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Caio MachadoTargetBrendson Ribeiro

By target zone

21% acc · 32%

Head

27% acc · 51%

70% acc · 43%

Body

64% acc · 33%

83% acc · 25%

Leg

62% acc · 16%

By position

41% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Caio Machado rounds

even

Brendson Ribeiro rounds

Round 1Caio Machado edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Caio Machado edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Caio Machado edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:02

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 184

Sig Strikes

49 / 131

42%

Sig Str %

38%

79 / 187

Total Strikes

49 / 131

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brendson Ribeiro	16 / 34	16 / 34	0 / 0
1	Caio Machado	22 / 43	22 / 43	0 / 0
2	Brendson Ribeiro	12 / 36	12 / 36	0 / 0
2	Caio Machado	22 / 58	22 / 58	0 / 0
3	Brendson Ribeiro	21 / 61	21 / 61	0 / 0
3	Caio Machado	32 / 83	35 / 86	0 / 0

Caio Machado

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights3

Brendson Ribeiro

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights8