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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Caio Borralho won · U-DEC R3

Elo1533

Elo1525

Reinier de Ridder editorial illustration

Caio BorralhovsReinier de RidderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · Saturday, March 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Caio Borralho won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCaio Borralho: Well-roundedvsReinier de Ridder: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Caio Borralho wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Caio Borralho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Borralho at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Caio Borralho has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Caio Borralho has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Caio Borralho

Red Corner

Reinier de Ridder

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1533

Elo

1525

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Caio Borralho

oldest →

SUBvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Apr 23

vs Abus Magomedov · Nov 23

KOvs Paul Craig · May 24

vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 25

latest

Reinier de Ridder

oldest →

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jan 25

KOvs Bo Nickal · May 25

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 25

KOvs Brendan Allen · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Caio BorralhoMetricReinier de Ridder

3.47

Strikes / min

2.47

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

60%

Strike defense

46%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

2.56

76%

Takedown defense

40%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.86evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Caio BorralhoReinier de Ridder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Caio Borralho(9 fights)Reinier de Ridder(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.5|Blue -7.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Caio BorralhoTargetReinier de Ridder

By target zone

49% acc · 56%

Head

32% acc · 67%

56% acc · 16%

Body

67% acc · 18%

94% acc · 28%

Leg

89% acc · 15%

By position

58% acc · 96%

Distance

38% acc · 96%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

67% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Caio Borralho rounds

even

Reinier de Ridder rounds

Round 1Reinier de Ridder edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 2Reinier de Ridder edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:41

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 3Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:11

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 98

Sig Strikes

55 / 141

58%

Sig Str %

38.7%

71 / 112

Total Strikes

111 / 199

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 8

100%

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

2:52

Ctrl Time

2:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Reinier de Ridder	19 / 51	30 / 62	2 / 5
1	Caio Borralho	24 / 42	24 / 42	0 / 0
2	Reinier de Ridder	17 / 43	23 / 50	0 / 3
2	Caio Borralho	14 / 25	22 / 33	0 / 0
3	Reinier de Ridder	19 / 47	58 / 87	0 / 0
3	Caio Borralho	19 / 31	25 / 37	1 / 1

Caio Borralho

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Reinier de Ridder

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6