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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Caio Borralho won · SUB R2

Elo1533

Elo1508

Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Caio BorralhovsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · Saturday, April 29, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Caio Borralho won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:49

Style matchupCaio Borralho: Well-roundedvsMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Caio Borralho wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Caio Borralho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Borralho at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Caio Borralho has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Caio Borralho

Red Corner

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1533

Elo

1508

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Caio Borralho

oldest →

vs Abus Magomedov · Nov 23

KOvs Paul Craig · May 24

vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 25

vs Reinier de Ridder · Mar 26

latest

Michal Oleksiejczuk

oldest →

vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Caio BorralhoMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk

3.47

Strikes / min

5.85

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

60%

Strike defense

59%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

1.02

76%

Takedown defense

52%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.86evenly matched on net striking+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Caio BorralhoMichal Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Caio Borralho(9 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.7|Blue -24.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Caio BorralhoTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

51% acc · 56%

Head

30% acc · 43%

77% acc · 29%

Body

81% acc · 57%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

49% acc · 53%

Distance

43% acc · 87%

71% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 32%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Caio Borralho rounds

even

Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds

Round 1Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:41

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control1:58

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 55

Sig Strikes

30 / 65

72.5%

Sig Str %

43.5%

52 / 74

Total Strikes

30 / 65

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

62.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:39

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michal Oleksiejczuk	26 / 55	26 / 55	0 / 1	0
1	Caio Borralho	25 / 45	30 / 50	1 / 4	0
2	Michal Oleksiejczuk	4 / 10	4 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Caio Borralho	9 / 10	22 / 24	2 / 2	1

Caio Borralho

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18