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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Caio Borralho won · U-DEC R3

Elo1533

Elo1438

Caio BorralhovsGadzhi OmargadzhievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · Saturday, April 16, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Caio Borralho won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 3:56

Model Prediction: Caio Borralho wins(72.6%)

Actual result: Caio Borralho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Borralho at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Caio Borralho has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Caio Borralho has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (54.1%).
Caio Borralho has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Caio Borralho

Red Corner

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1533

Elo

1438

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Caio Borralho

oldest →

vs Abus Magomedov · Nov 23

KOvs Paul Craig · May 24

vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 25

vs Reinier de Ridder · Mar 26

latest

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

oldest →

vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Caio BorralhoMetricGadzhi Omargadzhiev

3.47

Strikes / min

1.80

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

2.20

60%

Strike defense

39%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

1.35

76%

Takedown defense

60%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.86Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Caio BorralhoGadzhi Omargadzhiev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Caio Borralho(9 fights)Gadzhi Omargadzhiev(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +94.3|Blue -94.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Caio BorralhoTargetGadzhi Omargadzhiev

By target zone

66% acc · 74%

Head

21% acc · 50%

40% acc · 13%

Body

63% acc · 42%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

50% acc · 8%

By position

42% acc · 35%

Distance

24% acc · 67%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

86% acc · 61%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Caio Borralho rounds

even

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev rounds

Round 1Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control4:06

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control3:54

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:11

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 49

Sig Strikes

12 / 38

60.7%

Sig Str %

31.7%

63 / 86

Total Strikes

61 / 90

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

10:11

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gadzhi Omargadzhiev	5 / 10	31 / 38	1 / 1
1	Caio Borralho	18 / 26	32 / 45	0 / 0
2	Gadzhi Omargadzhiev	1 / 12	17 / 29	0 / 0
2	Caio Borralho	7 / 11	24 / 28	0 / 0
3	Gadzhi Omargadzhiev	6 / 16	13 / 23	0 / 1
3	Caio Borralho	6 / 12	7 / 13	1 / 1

Caio Borralho

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2