← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Caio Borralho won · U-DEC R3

Elo1533

Elo1484

Caio BorralhovsArmen PetrosyanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Saturday, July 9, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Caio Borralho won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCaio Borralho: Well-roundedvsArmen Petrosyan: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Caio Borralho wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Caio Borralho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Borralho at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Armen Petrosyan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Caio Borralho has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Caio Borralho (53.5%).
Caio Borralho has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Caio Borralho

Red Corner

Armen Petrosyan

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1533

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Caio Borralho

oldest →

vs Abus Magomedov · Nov 23

KOvs Paul Craig · May 24

vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 25

vs Reinier de Ridder · Mar 26

latest

Armen PetrosyanL3 streak

oldest →

vs AJ Dobson · Oct 22

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jun 23

SUBvs Rodolfo Vieira · Feb 24

KOvs Shara Magomedov · Oct 24

SUBvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Caio BorralhoMetricArmen Petrosyan

3.47

Strikes / min

5.84

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

60%

Strike defense

53%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

0.17

76%

Takedown defense

41%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.86Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap+2.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Caio BorralhoArmen Petrosyan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Caio Borralho(9 fights)Armen Petrosyan(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.7|Blue -48.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Caio BorralhoTargetArmen Petrosyan

By target zone

27% acc · 33%

Head

11% acc · 6%

75% acc · 50%

Body

33% acc · 10%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

79% acc · 84%

By position

48% acc · 92%

Distance

40% acc · 52%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

Ground

71% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Caio Borralho rounds

even

Armen Petrosyan rounds

Round 1Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control4:24

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control2:47

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Armen Petrosyan edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:58

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 25

Sig Strikes

31 / 61

51.7%

Sig Str %

50.3%

49 / 83

Total Strikes

72 / 132

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:09

Ctrl Time

1:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Armen Petrosyan	1 / 2	9 / 22	0 / 0
1	Caio Borralho	4 / 5	14 / 23	1 / 1
2	Armen Petrosyan	12 / 29	22 / 47	0 / 0
2	Caio Borralho	2 / 8	8 / 23	2 / 2
3	Armen Petrosyan	18 / 30	41 / 63	0 / 0
3	Caio Borralho	6 / 12	27 / 37	1 / 2

Caio Borralho

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Armen Petrosyan

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7