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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Caio Borralho won · U-DEC R3

Elo1533

Elo1528

Caio BorralhovsAbus MagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 4, 2023Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Caio Borralho won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCaio Borralho: Well-roundedvsAbus Magomedov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Caio Borralho wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Caio Borralho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Borralho at -298 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Abus Magomedov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Caio Borralho (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Caio Borralho

Red Corner

Abus Magomedov

Blue Corner

-298

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1533

Elo

1528

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Caio Borralho

oldest →

SUBvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Apr 23

KOvs Paul Craig · May 24

vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 25

vs Reinier de Ridder · Mar 26

latest

Abus Magomedov

oldest →

vs Warlley Alves · May 24

SUBvs Brunno Ferreira · Oct 24

vs Michel Pereira · Apr 25

SUBvs Joe Pyfer · Oct 25

SUBvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Caio BorralhoMetricAbus Magomedov

3.47

Strikes / min

3.07

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

60%

Strike defense

55%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

2.61

76%

Takedown defense

100%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.86Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Caio BorralhoAbus Magomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Caio Borralho(9 fights)Abus Magomedov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.5|Blue -4.5

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Caio BorralhoTargetAbus Magomedov

By target zone

45% acc · 65%

Head

26% acc · 50%

73% acc · 22%

Body

58% acc · 37%

47% acc · 14%

Leg

56% acc · 13%

By position

49% acc · 98%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Caio Borralho rounds

even

Abus Magomedov rounds

Round 1Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:17

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 103

Sig Strikes

38 / 107

48.7%

Sig Str %

35%

70 / 126

Total Strikes

39 / 110

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Abus Magomedov	7 / 33	7 / 33	0 / 0
1	Caio Borralho	11 / 25	11 / 25	0 / 1
2	Abus Magomedov	20 / 49	20 / 49	0 / 0
2	Caio Borralho	21 / 42	21 / 42	0 / 0
3	Abus Magomedov	11 / 25	12 / 28	0 / 0
3	Caio Borralho	19 / 36	38 / 59	0 / 0

Caio Borralho

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Abus Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights8