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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Cain Velasquez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1361

Cain VelasquezvsTravis BrowneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · Saturday, July 9, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cain Velasquez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:57

Style matchupCain Velasquez: WrestlervsTravis Browne: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Cain Velasquez wins(72.0%)

Actual result: Cain Velasquez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cain Velasquez at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Travis Browne enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cain Velasquez is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Travis Browne has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Travis Browne is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Cain Velasquez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Cain Velasquez has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Cain Velasquez

Red Corner

Travis Browne

Blue Corner

-355

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1491

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'6"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cain VelasquezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Junior Dos Santos · Dec 12

KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13

KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 15

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Feb 19

latest

Travis BrowneL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andrei Arlovski · May 15

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jan 16

vs Fabricio Werdum · Sep 16

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 17

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cain VelasquezMetricTravis Browne

6.37

Strikes / min

2.93

2.33

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

57%

Strike defense

42%

5.13

TDs / 15 min

1.21

85%

Takedown defense

75%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.04Δ 5.42 — meaningful gap-1.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cain VelasquezTravis Browne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cain Velasquez(9 fights)Travis Browne(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +130.5|Blue -130.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +218.0|Blue -218.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cain VelasquezTargetTravis Browne

By target zone

56% acc · 70%

Head

19% acc · 83%

83% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 56%

Distance

22% acc · 100%

63% acc · 10%

Clinch

77% acc · 34%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cain Velasquez rounds

even

Travis Browne rounds

Round 1Cain Velasquez edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns1

Control2:36

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 79

Sig Strikes

6 / 27

63%

Sig Str %

22%

90 / 124

Total Strikes

6 / 27

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:36

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Travis Browne	6 / 27	6 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Cain Velasquez	50 / 79	90 / 124	1 / 3	0

Cain Velasquez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Travis Browne

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights16