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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Cain Velasquez won · KO/TKO R5

Elo1491

Elo1393

Cain VelasquezvsJunior Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Cain Velasquez won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 3:09

Style matchupCain Velasquez: WrestlervsJunior Dos Santos: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Cain Velasquez wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Cain Velasquez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cain Velasquez at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Cain Velasquez is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Cain Velasquez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Cain Velasquez

Red Corner

Junior Dos Santos

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1491

Elo

1393

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cain Velasquez

oldest →

vs Junior Dos Santos · Dec 12

KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 15

KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Feb 19

latest

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cain VelasquezMetricJunior Dos Santos

6.37

Strikes / min

4.49

2.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

57%

Strike defense

56%

5.13

TDs / 15 min

0.30

85%

Takedown defense

81%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.04Δ 2.88 — meaningful gap+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cain VelasquezJunior Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cain Velasquez(9 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +98.8|Blue -98.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cain VelasquezTargetJunior Dos Santos

By target zone

57% acc · 78%

Head

34% acc · 78%

88% acc · 6%

Body

63% acc · 22%

80% acc · 16%

Leg

By position

52% acc · 36%

Distance

29% acc · 52%

67% acc · 54%

Clinch

57% acc · 46%

72% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cain Velasquez rounds

even

Junior Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Cain Velasquez edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control4:03

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cain Velasquez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control3:41

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Cain Velasquez edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control3:37

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 4Cain Velasquez edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control3:26

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Cain Velasquez edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:36

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

123 / 201

Sig Strikes

46 / 122

60.8%

Sig Str %

38.6%

274 / 378

Total Strikes

62 / 140

2 / 13

TDs

0 / 1

30%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

17:23

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Junior Dos Santos	10 / 26	15 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Cain Velasquez	22 / 33	52 / 66	1 / 5	0
2	Junior Dos Santos	7 / 19	11 / 23	0 / 1	0
2	Cain Velasquez	18 / 32	53 / 72	0 / 4	0
3	Junior Dos Santos	8 / 24	13 / 29	0 / 0	0
3	Cain Velasquez	39 / 64	67 / 101	0 / 3	1
4	Cain Velasquez	33 / 54	61 / 89	0 / 0	0
4	Junior Dos Santos	15 / 41	16 / 43	0 / 0	0
5	Junior Dos Santos	6 / 12	7 / 14	0 / 0	1
5	Cain Velasquez	11 / 18	41 / 50	1 / 1	0

Cain Velasquez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19