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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Junior Dos Santos won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1393

Cain VelasquezvsJunior Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · Saturday, November 12, 2011Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Junior Dos Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:04

Style matchupCain Velasquez: WrestlervsJunior Dos Santos: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Cain Velasquez is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Cain Velasquez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Cain Velasquez

Red Corner

Junior Dos Santos

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1491

Elo

1393

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cain Velasquez

oldest →

KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13

KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 15

KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Feb 19

latest

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cain VelasquezMetricJunior Dos Santos

6.37

Strikes / min

4.49

2.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

57%

Strike defense

56%

5.13

TDs / 15 min

0.30

85%

Takedown defense

81%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.04Δ 2.88 — meaningful gap+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cain VelasquezJunior Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cain Velasquez(9 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +98.8|Blue -98.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +231.0|Blue -231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cain VelasquezTargetJunior Dos Santos

By target zone

33% acc · 43%

Head

60% acc · 75%

Body

67% acc · 25%

80% acc · 57%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 50%

Clinch

Ground

80% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cain Velasquez rounds

even

Junior Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 14

Sig Strikes

8 / 13

50%

Sig Str %

61%

7 / 14

Total Strikes

12 / 19

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Junior Dos Santos	8 / 13	12 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Cain Velasquez	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 1	0

Cain Velasquez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19