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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Fabricio Werdum won · SUB R3

Elo1491

Elo1493

Cain VelasquezvsFabricio WerdumUFC Prediction Result

UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · Saturday, June 13, 2015Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Fabricio Werdum won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:13

Style matchupCain Velasquez: WrestlervsFabricio Werdum: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Cain Velasquez wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cain Velasquez at -460 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cain Velasquez is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Fabricio Werdum threatens submissions; Cain Velasquez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Cain Velasquez has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cain Velasquez

Red Corner

Fabricio Werdum

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cain Velasquez

oldest →

vs Junior Dos Santos · Dec 12

KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13

KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13

KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Feb 19

latest

Fabricio Werdum

oldest →

SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18

vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20

SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cain VelasquezMetricFabricio Werdum

6.37

Strikes / min

3.59

2.33

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

57%

Strike defense

55%

5.13

TDs / 15 min

1.75

85%

Takedown defense

31%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.04Δ 3.09 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cain VelasquezFabricio Werdum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cain Velasquez(9 fights)Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +392.0|Blue -392.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cain VelasquezTargetFabricio Werdum

By target zone

42% acc · 61%

Head

53% acc · 82%

75% acc · 7%

Body

63% acc · 13%

85% acc · 32%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

48% acc · 74%

Distance

53% acc · 82%

68% acc · 26%

Clinch

68% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cain Velasquez rounds

even

Fabricio Werdum rounds

Round 1Cain Velasquez edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns2

Control2:28

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

63Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Cain Velasquez edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control0:30

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 169

Sig Strikes

96 / 174

49.7%

Sig Str %

50.7%

117 / 201

Total Strikes

101 / 180

4 / 5

TDs

1 / 3

66.7%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

2:58

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fabricio Werdum	21 / 54	22 / 56	1 / 3	0
1	Cain Velasquez	35 / 65	58 / 90	2 / 2	0
2	Fabricio Werdum	63 / 95	66 / 98	0 / 0	0
2	Cain Velasquez	43 / 81	44 / 82	0 / 1	0
3	Fabricio Werdum	12 / 25	13 / 26	0 / 0	1
3	Cain Velasquez	10 / 23	15 / 29	2 / 2	0

Cain Velasquez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14