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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Cain Velasquez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1358

Cain VelasquezvsAntonio SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · Saturday, May 26, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cain Velasquez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:36

Style matchupCain Velasquez: WrestlervsAntonio Silva: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Cain Velasquez wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Cain Velasquez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cain Velasquez at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cain Velasquez is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Antonio Silva has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Antonio Silva is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Cain Velasquez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Cain Velasquez has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Antonio Silva has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cain Velasquez

Red Corner

Antonio Silva

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+355

(22%)

1491

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cain Velasquez

oldest →

KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13

KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 15

KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Feb 19

latest

Antonio SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Feb 15

KOvs Soa Palelei · Aug 15

KOvs Mark Hunt · Nov 15

KOvs Stefan Struve · May 16

KOvs Roy Nelson · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cain VelasquezMetricAntonio Silva

6.37

Strikes / min

2.89

2.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

57%

Strike defense

50%

5.13

TDs / 15 min

0.82

85%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.04Δ 4.24 — meaningful gap-0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cain VelasquezAntonio Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cain Velasquez(9 fights)Antonio Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.5|Blue -133.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -47.2|Blue +47.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cain VelasquezTargetAntonio Silva

By target zone

56% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

56% acc · 100%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cain Velasquez rounds

even

Antonio Silva rounds

Round 1Cain Velasquez edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control3:29

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 50

Sig Strikes

1 / 2

56%

Sig Str %

50%

53 / 84

Total Strikes

3 / 4

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:29

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Antonio Silva	1 / 2	3 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Cain Velasquez	28 / 50	53 / 84	1 / 1	0

Cain Velasquez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Antonio Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights10