Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Mitch Clarke threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
- Michael Chiesa has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Michael Chiesa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26 Mitch ClarkeL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Anton Kuivanen · Jul 12W
vs John Maguire · Jun 13W
SUBvs Al Iaquinta · May 14L
SUBvs Joe Duffy · Jul 16L
KOvs Alex White · Sep 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricMitch Clarke
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.29Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Michael ChiesaMitch Clarke
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Mitch Clarke(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +167.2|Blue -167.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -104.0|Blue +104.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael ChiesaTargetMitch Clarke
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns3
Control1:58
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:45Control
Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control3:25
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:50Control
Round 3Mitch Clarke edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
48Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
